[ FINANZAS ]
Inflación en México cede ligeramente
Banxico podría ajustar tasas esta semana
Ciudad de México.– La inflación en México mostró una leve desaceleración durante la primera mitad de junio, una señal que podría influir en las decisiones de política monetaria del Banco de México (Banxico), el cual se prepara para anunciar su postura este jueves.
De acuerdo con datos divulgados este martes, el índice nacional de precios al consumidor se ubicó en 4.51 por ciento anual, una ligera baja frente al 4.62 por ciento reportado en la segunda mitad de mayo. El resultado estuvo en línea con las proyecciones de analistas encuestados por Bloomberg.
En contraste, la inflación subyacente —que excluye productos con alta volatilidad como alimentos y energéticos— subió a 4.20 por ciento, ligeramente por encima del estimado de 4.16 por ciento.
Este comportamiento mixto mantiene la expectativa de que Banxico realice un nuevo recorte a la tasa de interés, que actualmente se sitúa en 8.5 por ciento. La mayoría de los analistas prevé una disminución de 50 puntos base, aunque algunos expertos, como Jonathan Heath, miembro de la Junta de Gobierno, han sugerido que una pausa también podría ser prudente.
División interna y señales encontradas
Mientras la inflación general da señales de moderación, el comportamiento de la subyacente genera dudas dentro del propio banco central. Algunos consejeros consideran necesario mantener el ritmo de recortes, mientras que otros ven con cautela el contexto económico global y local.
La gobernadora de Banxico, Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, ha enfatizado que las decisiones del banco no se basan en un solo dato, sino en una evaluación amplia de la inflación y otros factores como el débil crecimiento económico, previsto en apenas 0.1 por ciento para 2025.
Proyecciones y contexto internacional
Las previsiones de cierre de año apuntan a una inflación del 3.9 por ciento, aún por encima del objetivo central de Banxico del 3 por ciento, aunque dentro del margen de tolerancia de ±1 punto porcentual. En cuanto a la tasa de interés, el consenso estima que podría terminar el año en 7.5 por ciento.
En el contexto internacional, México se prepara también para una revisión clave del T-MEC, el tratado comercial con Estados Unidos y Canadá, lo cual añade una capa más de incertidumbre sobre el rumbo económico del país.
A pesar de los retos, funcionarios del gobierno han destacado que México ha resistido mejor que otras economías emergentes, gracias a su cercanía comercial con Estados Unidos y una relación diplomática que, hasta ahora, se ha mantenido estable.
Con información de El Economista
Ciudad de México.— El Banco de México (Banxico) aplicó un nuevo recorte de 25 puntos base a la tasa de referencia, que se ubica ahora en 7.25%, en el penúltimo anuncio de política monetaria del año. La decisión fue aprobada por mayoría de 4 a 1, con la oposición del subgobernador Jonathan Heath.
Con este ajuste, el banco central suma 400 puntos base de reducción en un ciclo de 12 movimientos iniciado en marzo de 2024, marcado por ocho recortes de 0.25 puntos y cuatro más de 0.50.
Banxico indicó que continuará evaluando los efectos de los factores que inciden en la inflación, a fin de mantener la tasa en niveles que permitan la convergencia ordenada hacia la meta de 3%.
En su informe, el instituto central realizó cambios moderados a sus previsiones de inflación: mantuvo la expectativa general en 3.6% para el cierre del tercer trimestre, pero ajustó a la baja su estimación anual de 3.6% a 3.5% para finales de 2025.
En contraste, elevó la proyección de inflación subyacente —considerada la más estable al excluir precios volátiles— a 4.1% para el último trimestre del año, frente al 4% estimado previamente.
Para 2026, Banxico prevé que la inflación regrese al objetivo de 3%, mientras el mercado se mantiene atento a futuros movimientos de la tasa en función de las presiones inflacionarias y el desempeño económico global.
[ FINANZAS ]
Refrescos y cigarros, los más golpeados por los nuevos impuestos “saludables”
Para el Paquete Económico 2026
Ciudad de México. – El Paquete Económico 2026 llegó acompañado de un fuerte golpe al bolsillo de los consumidores: el aumento de precios en productos de alto consumo como refrescos y cigarros.
La medida forma parte de los llamados “impuestos saludables”, presentados por la Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público (SHCP), con los que el gobierno busca recaudar más recursos y, al mismo tiempo, desincentivar hábitos nocivos para la salud.
De acuerdo con lo expuesto por el titular de Hacienda, Edgar Amador, estos nuevos gravámenes no solo buscan reducir el consumo de bienes considerados dañinos para la población, sino también fortalecer la estructura tributaria y generar ingresos adicionales que se destinarán a proyectos de seguridad, salud, educación e infraestructura.
El alza más drástica: refrescos casi al doble
El mayor incremento recae sobre las bebidas azucaradas, particularmente los refrescos. El IEPS pasará de 1.6451 pesos a 3.0818 pesos por litro, lo que representa un aumento del 87%.
La justificación de Hacienda es que el consumo de refresco en México es “elevado” y está estrechamente vinculado con la obesidad —que afecta al 76.2% de los adultos mayores de 20 años—, así como con enfermedades como diabetes, padecimientos cardiacos, cáncer y trastornos metabólicos.
Cigarros: incremento histórico en impuestos
Otro de los productos más castigados son los cigarros. El impuesto ad valorem subirá de 160% a 200%, con un esquema de aumentos graduales que se extenderá hasta 2030.
Además, la medida aplicará también para bolsas de nicotina y cigarros artesanales, en cuyo caso la tasa específica crecerá 32%. Según cifras de Hacienda, el consumo de tabaco provoca cada año la muerte de más de 63 mil personas en México, principalmente por cáncer de pulmón, EPOC y enfermedades cardiovasculares.
Otros rubros con impuestos saludables
Aunque refrescos y cigarros acaparan la atención por ser productos de consumo masivo, los impuestos también alcanzan a otros sectores:
- Videojuegos violentos: aumento del 8% en precios digitales.
- Casas de apuestas en línea: nuevo gravamen del 30% al 50% sobre el monto total de cada transacción.
El trasfondo de la medida
Hacienda defiende que los “impuestos saludables” son un instrumento con fines extrafiscales para corregir patrones de consumo dañinos, aunque en la práctica, el efecto inmediato será un encarecimiento para millones de mexicanos que consumen refrescos y cigarros de manera cotidiana.
El debate está abierto: mientras el gobierno habla de salud pública y recaudación, los consumidores anticipan un fuerte impacto directo en su economía diaria.
Ciudad de México.– Las bolsas de valores en México concluyeron la jornada de este viernes con avances, acumulando su segunda sesión consecutiva al alza y cerrando la semana con ganancias, en línea con los mercados internacionales que reaccionaron de manera positiva al panorama de política monetaria en Estados Unidos.
El S&P/BMV IPC, principal índice de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) que concentra a las emisoras más negociadas del país, registró un incremento de 0.96%, colocándose en las 59,225.48 unidades.
Por su parte, el FTSE BIVA, de la Bolsa Institucional de Valores, también avanzó 1.03%, cerrando en 1,186.87 puntos.
Los inversionistas mantuvieron el optimismo tras las señales de que la Reserva Federal podría moderar el rumbo de su política monetaria, lo que favoreció el apetito por activos de mercados emergentes como México.
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